Real Estate Outlook: Change Anticipated

The national economic headlines continue to be bearish, but some of the underlying fundamentals for real estate are pointing to better days ahead.

Take home mortgage rates: Last week thirty year fixed rates dropped below the seemingly-unbreakable five percent barrier for the first time on record, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

New thirty year loans went for an average 4.89 percent, while fifteen year loans were just above 4.6 percent.

Equally important, the outlines of the Obama administration's and Congress's plans to turn around the housing markets just became clearer. Tops on their list: Ending the foreclosure epidemics in some parts of the country through ambitious new programs designed to rework the terms of hundreds of thousands of mortgages that are now unaffordable.

In a letter to Congress last week, Lawrence Summers, Obama's nominee to head the National Economic Council, said the incoming administration plans to use portions of the remaining $350 billion in "TARP" -- or "Troubled Asset Relief Program" -- money to rework monthly payments for what Summers called "responsible home owners" now facing economic challenges in the recession.

Though Summers did not go into detail, the program is likely to be based on FDIC chairman Sheila Bair's proposed "mass-modification" concept that the Bush administration rejected last Fall.

Versions of that program might include widespread principal write-downs -- outright reductions in home owners' mortgage balances -- and guarantees to lenders in the event borrowers re-default.

The Obama administration is also likely to institute an immediate ban on all foreclosure actions, possibly for three months, and is certain to enact bankruptcy reform legislation allowing judges to modify mortgage terms to forestall foreclosures.

Why's this important for anyone involved in real estate? The key to stabilizing local markets, say most economists, is reducing the numbers of new foreclosures and other distressed-price transactions.

Foreclosures lower property values in surrounding neighborhoods, wherever they occur. That discourages potential buyers -- who don't want to plunge in as long as prices are still declining.

If the new administration and Congress can successfully reduce the numbers of new foreclosures, there's an excellent chance that the current combination of low prices and record low mortgage rates can have the effect they should be having: Spurring new sales.

Add in still another factor: Congress may create a new and improved tax credit -- one that's not repayable and covers all home purchases, not simply first-time buyers -- and we just might be looking at a FAR more positive outlook than a lot of people could imagine.

by Kenneth R. Harney

NAR pushes for new housing stimulus package

NAR has presented a four point stimulus plan to Congress for consideration. The current economic crisis is, at its core, the result of problems in the nation's housing and mortgage markets. This circumstance, along with the fact that housing has always lifted our economy out of downturns, makes it imperative that efforts be taken immediately to foster a housing recovery, so that a recovery of the overall economy can occur.

NAR's plan includes features such as consumer-driven provisions that eliminate repayment of the first-time homebuyer tax credit and expands it to all homebuyers, makes higher mortgage loan limits permanent, focuses the economic stabilization efforts once again on the housing and mortgage markets as opposed to providing banks with capital with no strings attached and prohibits banks from entering into real estate.

NAR strongly believes that inclusion of these priorities in a stimulus package is imperative to move our nation out of this economic crisis:

1. Remove the requirement in the current law that first-time homebuyers repay the $7,500 tax credit, and expand the tax credit to apply not only to first-time buyers but also to all buyers of a primary residence. This will help address inventory issues in many markets.

2. Revise the FHA, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loan limit increases to reflect the higher temporary level enacted in February. Although subsequent legislation made loan limit increases permanent, the permanent loan limits were reduced from the February levels. This has broad implication for homebuyers in high cost areas.

3. Urge the government to use a portion of the allotted $700 billion that was provided to purchase mortgage-backed securities from banks to provide price stabilization for housing. The Treasury department should be required to use the newly enacted Troubled Assets Relief Program to push banks to:

Extend credit down to Main Street, making credit more available to consumers and small businesses;

Expedite the process for short sales;

Expedite the resolution of banks' real estate owned (REOs) properties.

4. Make permanent the prohibition against banks entering real estate brokerage and management, further protecting consumers and the economy.

NAR has presented this plan to Congress and will continue to strongly pursue a special session of Congress to enact this vital housing stimulus legislation package after the national election. Housing has always help lift the economy out of downturns. It is imperative to get the housing market moving forward as quickly as possible. Congress must take immediate and specific actions to boost the confidence of potential homebuyers in the housing market and make it easier for qualified buyers to get safe and affordable mortgage loans.

Pending Home Sales up Strongly

Pending home sales activity surged as buyers took advantage of low home prices and affordable interest rates, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

The Pending Home Sales Index,1 a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in August, jumped 7.4 percent to 93.4 from an upwardly revised reading of 87.0 in July, and is 8.8 percent higher than August 2007 when it stood at 85.8. The index is at the highest level since June 2007 when it stood at 101.4.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said home buyers were responding to improved affordability. “What we’re seeing is the momentum of people taking advantage of low home prices, with pending home sales up strongly in California, Nevada, Arizona, Florida, Rhode Island and the Washington, D.C., region,” he said. "It’s unclear how much contract activity may be impacted by the credit disruptions on Wall Street, but we’re hopeful most of the increase will translate into closed existing-home sales.”

The PHSI in the West surged 18.4 percent to 109.5 in August and remains 37.8 percent above a year ago. In the Northeast the index jumped 8.4 percent to 79.8 and is 2.0 percent higher than August 2007. The index in the Midwest rose 3.6 percent to 84.5 in August and is 6.6 percent above a year ago. In the South, the index increased 2.3 percent to 96.0 but is 2.1 percent below August 2007.

Yun notes the unusual timing of contract activity in August. “Home buyers in July were hampered by overly stringent lending criteria in the months before the government takeover of Fannie and Freddie,” he said. “August shows some unleashing of pent-up demand before the credit crisis accelerated in September.”

He cautioned that the sampling size for pending home sales is smaller than the track on existing-home sales, so there is more volatility in the forward-looking series. “We need to see just how much of this gain holds up,” Yun said.

NAR President Richard F. Gaylord, a broker with RE/MAX Real Estate Specialists in Long Beach, Calif., said despite all the turmoil in world financial markets, home mortgages are available. “Mortgages have been harder to find, and availability and terms vary depending on credit score and location, but Realtors® can help buyers find reputable lenders while helping them navigate the transaction process,” he said. “The recently enacted economic stimulus package should help housing by gradually freeing the flow of credit.”

Yun now expects growth in the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) to contract for two consecutive quarters, in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of 2009, before expanding in latter part of 2009 as the housing market begins a steady improvement.

Looking at middle-ground assumptions, existing-home sales are forecast at 5.04 million this year and 5.41 million in 2009. Following national declines of 5 to 8 percent in 2008, home prices are projected to increase 2 to 3 percent next year.

New-home sales should total around 503,000 this year and 471,000 in 2009. Housing starts, including multifamily units, are likely to fall 28.2 percent to 973,000 units this year, and come in around 843,000 in 2009 as builders continue to clear the accumulation in inventory.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will probably average 6.1 percent in the fourth quarter and rise gradually to 6.6 percent by the end of 2009. NAR’s housing affordability index is expected to average 18 percentage points higher this year than in 2007.

The unemployment rate is projected to average 6.4 percent in the fourth quarter and then average 6.6 percent in 2009. Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, is estimated at 4.0 percent for 2008 and 2.0 percent next year. Inflation-adjusted disposable personal income is forecast to grow 1.7 percent this year and 1.0 percent in 2009.